Just some notes I took lately. And yes, I am optimistic.
- Economy
- Typical cycle
- Geopolitical risks calming down
- Inflation somewhat controlled
- Concerns shift from inflation to economic slowdown
- $70B monthly trade deficit
- Lots of liquidity in market
- Indicators
- CPI, most important
- Core raising
- Biggest producer prices/industrial production decline
- Temporary increase on vehicle prices
- U.Mich Consumer Confidence Index up
- Housing slowdowns negatively affect new construction/raw materials, however hasn't spread to other areas
- FI
- Treasuries rose
- Invest in short term instruments
- If economy growing at 2.5%~3% and bonds stabilize, good value
- Equities
- Put options
- Health Care sector cheap
- Defense industry good
- Financial sector does well during economy slowdown
- Consumer/retail sectors good b/c of holiday season
- Earnings drive market up
- Commodities
- Precious metals – defense against declining dollar
- Winter will produce demand for electricity/heating oil
- Gold down, goes against market
- Energy price down, more $ in consumer pocket for holiday season
- Currencies
- Yuan: cheap
- Dollar: potential lowering in value
- More attractive to invest overseas
- International
- France: 8%~9% growth
- Italy/Germany: new market, changing job market
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