subprime

First Dow Kim, head of GMI, now Stan O’Neal, CEO, Merrill Lynch is dismissing its top execs left and right. I’ve been a big fan of both, especially O’Neal, being the first non-caucasian CEO of a bulge-bracket and his drastic changes when he took the lead at Merrill in 2002. He was one of the top reasons I chose the firm to start my career.

But that’s not the end of the story: layoffs are happening everywhere, bulge-bracket or not, thanks to subprime. I don’t have any friends affected yet. Best of luck to those that are.

 IM conversations at leading funds:

Analyst: I think that this maker of ball bearings is quite attractive because of its strong operating momentum, $500mm net cash position, and dirt cheap valuation of 6x fully-loaded FCF.

PM: WHAT IS THEIR SUBPRIME EXPOSURE?!?

Analyst: They don’t own subprime. Or sell houses. Or sell into housing-related markets. Or have variable rate debt.

PM: OK BUT ARE THEY EXPOSUDED TO THE SUBPRIME PRESSURE ON YIELDS?

Analyst: No

PM: I LIKE THE NAME BUT WANT TO OWN IT 10% CHEAPER

Analyst: They’re buying back 10% of shares outstanding this year.

PM: WHAT ABOUT SUBPRIME? ANY EXPOSURE THERE?

Analyst is now offline.

(Am I the only one that don’t think subprime is that bad? Look at how much GS made by shorting subprime for their proprietary trading)

To further demonstrate my point of housing hitting the bottom and rebounding, here’s a great article with housing data that just came out today:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose 0.6% in November to 6.28 Mln Rate - Bloomberg

Conclusion: I’m bullish as I always was.